Water woes to fuel next world war?

US Intel Warns Of Future Conflicts

[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="380"] Malakal girl carrying jug from water point.[/caption]

Drought, floods and a lack of fresh water may cause significant global instability and conflict in coming decades, as developing countries scramble to meet demand from exploiting populations while dealing with the effects of climate change, US intelligence agencies said in a report.

An assesment reflecting the joint judgement of federal intelligence agencies says the risk of water issuses causing wars in the next 10 years is minimial even as they create tensions within and between the states and threaten to disrupt national and global food markets. But beyond 2022, the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism will become more likely, particularly in South Asia, the Middle East and Noth Africa.

The report is based on a classified National Intelligence Estimate on water security, which was requested by secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton and completed last fall. It says floods, scare and poor quality water, combined with poverty, social tension, poor leadership and weak governments will contribute to instability that could lead the failure of numerous states.

Those elements “will likely increase the risk of instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions and distract countries from working with the US on important policy objectives,” said the report, whivh was released at a state department event commemorating World Water Day.

Clinton, who unveiled a new US water partnership that aims to share American water management expertise with the whole world, called the findings “sobering”. “These threats are real and they do raise serious security concerns,” she said.

The report noted that countries have in the past tried to resolve water issuses through negotiation but said that could change as water shortages become more severe. It predicts that upstream nations more powerful than their downstream neighbours due to geography will limit access to water for political reasons and that countries will regulate internal supplies to supress separatlist movements and dissident populations.

At the same time, terrorists and rogue states may target or threaten to target water-related infrastructure like dams and reservoirs more frequently.